Beef

• COVID induced staff shortages combined with environmental events over the previous years have reduced the number of cattle processed from 150k per week to less than 100k
• Extended Christmas closures for processing plants have occurred as there has been a shortage of cattle while farmers build up their herds following droughts and bushfires
• Panic buying has further increased demand at a retail level which has placed even greater pressures on production and supply  

As we move into 2022, the Australian beef market is facing very difficult challenges from the farm gate right through to food services and retail customers.  It comes on the back of already challenging circumstances as the national herd is rebuilt, with high rainfall following the drought that has affected key beef producing areas in 2019 and 2020.

Production has been hit hard with COVID reducing the workforce by up to 50%, which has closely followed the extended Christmas break. As the southern states are further along the COVID spike, it is hoped that production capacity will bounce back quicker, although timeframes for increased production remain volatile.

 

Chicken

• COVID-related staff shortages have reduced production capacity to less than 50% in key facilities across the country
• Facing greater demand because of beef shortages and retail panic buying
• Less value-added and portioned chicken is being produced as it requires more staff in processing than whole birds

COVID related shortages are having a significant impact on production facilities and their ability to produce value-added and portioned products. Production facilities across the east coast have been suffering from significant staff shortages, with available boning crews and butchers often operating at less than 50%. Whole boning crews and production runs often need to isolate due to COVID cases and on top of that many facilities are in regional areas, where COVID has only recently been introduced to the community.

Many producers in Australia also service the retail market, where reporting of potential shortages has put even more pressure on supply. As a result, some producers are only supplying whole birds as it requires more staff to produce value-added and portioned products. Chicken works in 3 month cycles, so you can expect challenges with supply for a few months before availability returns to normal levels.

 

 

Lamb

• Smaller flock numbers of spring lambs in NSW and Vic because of lockdowns
• Increased overseas demand has seen a lot of local supply exported
• Rain in key lamb producing areas should improve availability in the coming months if production facilities can avoid significant staff shortages

Normally in January we would be at the tail end of the spring lamb season with good supply in the domestic market, however 2021 spring flock numbers particularly in NSW and VIC were smaller on average due to lengthy lockdowns in these states. While international demand from the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia has seen a lot of this spring production sent to overseas markets.

Recent rain in NSW and VIC should help with lamb availability in the coming months as production facilities begin to reopen from Christmas closures, however production capacity will depend on staffing availability and isolation requirements over the next few weeks.

 

Pork

• Higher feed costs and African Swine Flu have created a global pork shortage
• COVID related staff shortages at multiple pig abattoirs and production facilities have placed further pressure on supply
• Pork belly in particular, will be in short supply as it requires more staff to produce the end product

Multiple factors are affecting current pork availability, as a result of industry rationalisation and drought conditions in NSW and QLD. This has led to higher feed costs, which has seen herd numbers decline. On top of local factors, there is also a global pork shortage as African Swine Flu has wreaked havoc on the industry, further amplifying existing issues.

Slaughter volume is seasonal and will usually build up from the start of the year, with peaks in late autumn/early winter and before Christmas. However, pork supply has been significantly impacted by COVID related staff shortages at multiple pig abattoirs and production facilities in QLD – many of these facilities have stood down staff and cancelled production runs as a result.

These events will have a larger impact on specific cuts that require greater effort to produce the finished product, placing pressure on pork belly, value-added and portioned products. In the immediate future, Chinese New Year will also increase demand for exports of key pork cuts such as knuckles and collar butts. In the coming months, pork supply will largely be dependent on staffing availability at abattoirs as well as local production facilities.