Pork October Market Update

  • In October, we experienced a continued tightening in the domestic market driven by strong Exports numbers to Singapore and reduced slaughter numbers vs the national forecast.
  • In conjunction with the shortening in the market - we have had no relief on feed prices and as such livestock prices are rising swiftly and will continue to do so until at least January. This is being reflected in increased primal prices across the carcass.
  • At a cut/primal level, leg and shoulder meat were in particularly high demand and we saw increased enquiry on these products in October. It seems traders are starting to clear our freezers and demand and activity is increasing in the trading market.
  • On the price front, we are predicting increases across the board on all primals leading into Christmas. This will be driven by the combination of short supply, high livestock costs, high diesel prices (freight costs) and organic Christmas uplift in demand.
  • Despite the decrease in lamb and beef livestock prices, it seems the retailers are opting to enjoy healthier profits rather than pass these reductions on to the consumer. Based on this, Pork market share is predicted to be maintained as a more affordable option alongside Chicken.   
  • In Foodservice, the APL tells us the out-of-home meal rate slowed again slightly in October, with dinners driving the decline. Spend per person is down and the out-of-home rate for October was also down on the same time last year.  In contrast, Fast-Food takeaway continues to trend upwards, and it seems that fast food outlets are seen as cost-effective dinner option for the family rather than occasional treat. Based on this, some of the QSR chains are recording some of their highest ever financial results.
  • The team at Sunpork have been focused on building a healthy inventory of Frozen lines over the past few months in preparedness for the predicted short supply and so far we are well placed on most key MOCO lines heading in to Christmas.

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